How to Use Data Analytics to Predict Customer Orders & Increase Profits

Offering discounts is one of the oldest strategies in the restaurant business—but not all discounts are created equal. From happy hours to combo offers, percentage cuts to buy-one-get-one deals, understanding the psychology behind promotions can help restaurateurs boost revenue without eroding brand value.

Chef Shajahan M Abdul, founder of Restro Consultants Pvt Ltd (RCPL), says, “The right discount at the right time isn’t a cost—it’s a catalyst. But too many restaurants give away margins without getting loyalty or long-term sales in return.”

So, what works in restaurant discounting? How do you create happy hours and offers that excite customers and protect your bottom line?

Let’s break it down.

Why Do Restaurant Discounts Work?

At their core, discounts tap into consumer psychology:

  • The fear of missing out (FOMO)
  • The thrill of getting a deal
  • The perception of value over price
  • The instant gratification of saving money

Chef Abdul adds, “People don’t just love food—they love feeling smart about how they got it. The emotion behind the offer matters as much as the offer itself.”

Types of Restaurant Discounts That Work Best

Here’s how restaurant consultants categorise and recommend discounts for different goals:

1. Time-Based Offers (Happy Hours)

Best for: Increasing traffic during slow hours (3–6 PM, post-lunch slump, early dinner)
Why it works: It creates urgency and routine. People plan around time-bound deals.

Chef Shajahan M Abdul recommends keeping happy hour menus limited but high in margin—like drinks, finger food, or shareable platters.

Pro tip from RCPL: Use happy hours to introduce high-margin or underperforming items in small portions for discovery.

2. Percentage Discounts (e.g., 20% off)

Best for: General promotion, app launches, first-time orders
Why it works: It is Easy to understand, flexible, and widely appealing.

But beware: it can devalue your brand if overused.

Chef Abdul says, “Too many restaurants train customers to wait for offers. The discount should feel like a reward, not an expectation.”

3. Combo Deals

Best for: Takeaway, delivery, and increasing average ticket size
Why it works: Customers perceive more value when bundling multiple items at a better price.

Restro Consultants Pvt Ltd (RCPL) often helps brands design combos around popular or profitable items. Pairing a bestseller with a lesser-known item boosts exposure and sales for both.

4. BOGO (Buy One Get One Free)

Best for: Beverage sales, dessert promos, or low-cost appetisers
Why it works: The word “free” has a massive psychological pull. It also encourages group dining and sharing.

Chef Shajahan M Abdul recommends using BOGO during launch phases or slower weekdays to build buzz.

5. Loyalty-Linked Discounts

Best for: Retention and repeat visits
Why it works: It feels like a reward, not a promotion. Customers are more likely to return for personalised deals.

Restaurant consultants at RCPL build loyalty programs with automated milestone triggers: “Spend 2000, get 200 off next time,” or “Visit 3 times a month, get a free dessert.”

Chef Abdul explains, “Loyalty-linked offers work because they’re earned, not expected.”

The Psychology Triggers That Make Discounts Effective

1.    Urgency – “Today Only” or “Last 3 Days” forces quicker decision-making.

2.    Scarcity – “First 50 Customers” or “Only on Wednesdays” creates exclusivity.

3.    Anchoring – Showing original vs discounted price influences perceived value.

4.    Social Proof – “Our most popular combo” boosts trust and encourages conformity.

5.    Personalization – Offers based on past orders or special occasions feel more thoughtful.

Chef Shajahan M Abdul notes, “The most powerful promotions don’t shout louder—they speak directly to the customer’s mindset.”

Typical Discount Mistakes Restaurants Make

Relying too heavily on aggregator-led discounts

This eats into margins and dilutes brand perception. Instead, push in-house offers via your platforms—WhatsApp, email, or loyalty apps.

Not tracking redemption rates or profitability

Numbers should back every promotion. Restro Consultants Pvt Ltd (RCPL) provides promo performance dashboards to measure impact.

No clear call to action

“Get 10% off” is less potent than “Dine in before 7 PM and save 10% on your total bill.”

How to Structure Offers Without Losing Profits

Chef Abdul offers a simple framework:

1.    Choose your goal: Is it footfall? New customers? Higher check size?

2.    Pick the format: Time-based? Combo? Percentage off?

3.    Select target items: Preferably high-margin or high-visibility dishes

4.    Define the channel: In-app? Social media? Email? Standee at entrance?

5.    Track results: Measure cost vs uplift in sales or traffic

RCPL ensures that each discount aligns with the restaurant’s positioning. For example, a fine-dining outlet offering 50% off on weekends might gain volume but lose brand equity.

Case Studies from RCPL

  • A Bangalore café saw a 28% increase in 4–6 PM traffic after launching a “99 happy hour platter” for two weeks.
  • A QSR chain in Hyderabad tested two offers: flat 20% off and “buy two, get one free.” The latter increased ticket size by 15% with a lower cost impact.
  • A delivery-focused biryani brand used personalised SMS codes curated by Chef Abdul, resulting in a 34% return customer rate over three months.

Final Thoughts from Chef Shajahan M Abdul

Restaurant discounts are a science rooted in emotion, timing, and value perception. They build buzz, drive traffic, and increase profit when designed well. But when done without intent, they become costly habits that customers exploit.

As Chef Shajahan M Abdul puts it:
“A discount should feel like a gift, not a gimmick. The smartest restaurants offer less—but make it feel like more.”

With support from expert restaurant consultants at Restro Consultants Pvt Ltd (RCPL), your business can design discount strategies that are not only attractive but also strategically profitable.

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